About four in five of the roughly 980,000 people deported during the first 18 months of President Trump's second term had no criminal conviction, according to a Migration Policy Institute (MPI) analysis published on October 22, 2026. MPI counts deportations from January 20, 2025 to July 31, 2026. It built its estimate from government data released through public-records requests, because the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) stopped publishing detailed enforcement reports in January 2025.

The monthly pace has stayed between 46,000 and 57,000 and averaged 55,000 in May to July 2026, which is close to 1,800 a day by our arithmetic. This article sets out what is in those numbers, what is disputed, and what they mean for people who live here.

What the numbers say

1. Most people deported had no criminal conviction. Of the 980,000 deportations, 190,000 (20%) involved someone with a conviction, so by our arithmetic about 790,000 did not. Among formal removals, 31% involved a convicted person, against an average of 44% in fiscal years 2009 to 2021. The longer someone had lived here, the larger the share with a conviction, but most still had none:

Convictions also differ in weight. Among convicted people who were removed, the most common offenses were illegal entry or re-entry (23%) and traffic offenses including DUI (21%). Marc Rosenblum, a former head of DHS's statistics office, said: "These data do not show that the administration is deporting the worst of the worst."

2. The border still dominates, but the interior share is growing.

The interior share rose from 28% in 2025 to 34% in the first half of 2026 and 39% in July 2026. Interior deportations averaged 8,000 a month early on and 19,000 a month in May to July 2026. Border-related deportations fell over the same period: CBP turnarounds are down 14% and ICE border arrests are down 21% from the start of the term.

3. Most deportations are formal removals, and voluntary departures are at a record. Removals were 59% (580,000), enforcement returns 30% (300,000) and administrative returns 11% (110,000); the figures are rounded. A removal is a formal order that carries visa bars and penalties for coming back, and the person can contest it. A return is a streamlined departure that generally cannot be contested. About 170,000 of the enforcement returns were voluntary departures or returns granted by ICE, which MPI calls "an all-time high by a wide margin." AP reports that some advocates say people accept them mainly to leave ICE detention.

4. The pace is above recent years but well below the peak. MPI counts 620,000 deportations in fiscal 2025 and projects 660,000 for fiscal 2026 (fiscal years run October to September). Annual totals are 26% above the 2021 to 2024 average and 42% above 2017 to 2020. Fiscal 2000 recorded 1.86 million, so the current pace is roughly a third of that peak by our arithmetic. The White House goal of 1 million a year has not been reached.

What is disputed, and what the data cannot show

The government's own figures do not match each other. MPI notes that one July 2026 DHS announcement cited 845,931 deportations, while another statement said more than 985,000 as of July 12. MPI says its 980,000 is "in line with the department's public statements." AP reports that the administration separately said it has deported or removed 1.2 million migrants, a number AP could not immediately reconcile with the report.

"Total departures" is a different and much less certain number. DHS officials claim more than 3 million total departures, counting people who left on their own. MPI estimates 790,000 to 1.9 million total departures of immigrants with at least a year in the U.S., including 310,000 to 1.5 million self-departures, and calls 3 million "highly unlikely." It says DHS's figure likely includes lawfully present immigrants and U.S. citizens who left through Project Homecoming, which offers a free flight and an exit bonus of up to $2,600.

The data are estimates, not an official series. MPI says its FOIA-based figures "will not be exact matches for official DHS data." It counts by departure date, not case closure date. About 218,560 ICE records lacked entry dates, so MPI assigned them randomly, which likely understates how long people had lived here.

"No conviction" is not "no charges." The figures count convictions. In the summary we reviewed, MPI does not say how many people faced pending charges or had a prior removal order.

The White House disagrees with the framing. Spokesperson Lauren Bis said: "President Trump has delivered the largest reduction in illegal immigration in modern history."

What this means for readers

National averages do not predict any one case, and this is not legal advice. Four practical points follow from the data:

• Check your own situation, not the headlines. Your risk depends on your status, your history and your court record. Have a qualified person review your file.

• Do not sign anything without legal advice. MPI says returns, which include voluntary departures, generally cannot be contested. If you are offered a paper to leave voluntarily, ask to speak to a lawyer first.

• Use only authorized help. That means a licensed immigration attorney, or an accredited representative who works for a recognized organization. The Department of Justice publishes a roster of recognized organizations and accredited representatives. The FTC warns that a notary is not a lawyer and cannot give immigration advice.

• Prepare your family. Keep one folder with your passport, entry records, notices, receipts and proof of how long you have lived here, with copies that someone you trust can reach. Decide who would care for children and who would call a lawyer if someone is detained.