Labor, the Coalition, and One Nation All Want to Slash Migration to Australia. Here Is Every Number, Side by Side
Within three weeks of each other, Australia's governing Labor party, the opposition Coalition, and the minor party One Nation have each put a number on how much they want to cut immigration. Net overseas migration (NOM) stood at around 292,000 to 306,000 a year as recently as mid-2025. Every one of the three main proposals now on the table would take that figure to a fraction of its recent level, some of them far lower than anything Australia has done in decades. None of this is law yet, but if you are a student, a graduate, a working holidaymaker, a skilled worker, or a family sponsor with Australia in your plans, the direction of travel across the entire political spectrum is the same: down, sharply.
Why this is happening now
The backdrop is a familiar one in several countries right now: a post-pandemic migration surge, a housing shortage, and rising cost-of-living pressure that voters increasingly link to population growth. NOM surged after Australia's 2022 border reopening and has been declining for the past two years, but not fast enough for any of the three major political forces, each of which is now competing to promise the deepest cut. One Nation, a right-wing populist party, has been outpolling the Coalition in some recent surveys, which is widely read as part of why the Coalition unveiled a plan on October 6 that goes well beyond Labor's existing policy.
The three plans, side by side
Coalition (opposition) | Labor (government) | One Nation | |
Net overseas migration | 100,000/yr (years 1-2), 130,000 (yr 3), 160,000 (yr 4) | 245,000 (2026-27), 225,000/yr after | Net-negative (years 1-3), then capped at 130,000/yr |
Temporary visa holders | Cut by ~650,000 over 4 years | Not specified as a single figure | Cut by 750,000+ over 3 years |
International students | New commencements capped at 240,000/yr; family restrictions | Tighter family-member rules; exemptions for PhDs, Pacific nations | Student visa grants cut from 290,000+ to 115,000/yr |
Graduate visas | Largely abolished; narrow exceptions (PhD, health, education, regional) | No specific change announced | Exception only for a proposed "high-value" postgraduate visa |
Humanitarian intake | Halved to 10,000/yr | Not specified | Not specified |
Working holiday visas | Year-2/3 caps scrapped, but higher fees without regional work | 2nd-year: 45,000 (down from ~57,000); 3rd-year: 5,000 (down from ~31,000) | Not specified |
Skilled / construction | Permanent skilled cap stays 185,000; +60,000 temp skilled, +15,000 project visas | Processing prioritized: construction, agriculture, fisheries, mining, teaching | Not specified |
Visa overstayers | Not specified | Greater use of immigration detention | Not specified |
When it would apply | Only if Coalition wins the 2028 election; full costings pending | Current government policy | Only if elected; currently a minor party |
A caveat worth sitting with: only Labor's numbers are current government policy. The Coalition's plan is a proposal from the opposition that only takes effect if it wins the next federal election, due in 2028, and the party itself says full costings are still to come. One Nation is a minor party; its numbers are a policy pledge, not a governing program. Treat the Coalition and One Nation figures as a signal of where political pressure is pushing policy, not as rules that apply to anyone today.
What Angus Taylor actually said
Announcing the Coalition's plan on October 6, Opposition Leader Angus Taylor called it "the biggest cut to immigration in the history of this country." He argued the targets would "take pressure off roads, off schools, off infrastructure, off houses," and accused the current government of having "shifted from skilled migration to mass migration," which the Coalition says it would reverse. The plan would also link future migration levels to the pace of new home construction, which is currently running at roughly 173,000 homes a year, well below demand.
Who this actually affects, and how
Prospective international students: All three parties want fewer new student visas and tighter rules on bringing dependents, though the Labor family-visa exemptions (PhD students, Pacific nations) are the narrowest version of the squeeze currently in force.
Graduates hoping to stay and work: The Coalition's near-total abolition of the temporary graduate visa is the single biggest proposed change in this entire comparison. It is not current policy, but it signals where opposition thinking is heading if the government changes.
Working holidaymakers: Labor has already cut second- and third-year extension numbers; the Coalition says it would scrap those specific caps but raise fees for people who skip required regional work, which could net out similarly depending on how it is implemented.
Skilled and construction workers: This is the one category where every party says it wants more people, not fewer, reflecting Australia's construction-labor shortage. If you have in-demand trade or construction skills, this is the most favorable corner of all three plans.
Humanitarian and family-sponsored migrants: Only the Coalition has put a specific number on humanitarian intake (a 50% cut), and Labor and One Nation have both signaled tighter family-reunion rules tied to student and graduate visas specifically, while family reunion visas more broadly remain largely untouched in the Coalition plan.
What business groups are saying
Industry reaction so far has focused on the risk of worker shortages. Business groups have warned that cuts on the scale the Coalition and One Nation are proposing could slow economic growth and deepen existing shortages in sectors that already depend heavily on migrant labor, even as all three parties simultaneously promise more visas for construction specifically. Universities, which rely heavily on international student revenue, have not yet issued a detailed public response to the October 6 Coalition announcement.
Frequently asked questions
Is any of this in effect right now?
Only Labor's policy is current government policy, since Labor is in government. The Coalition's plan only takes effect if it wins the next federal election, due in 2028. One Nation's plan would only apply if the party were elected to government, which is not the current political situation.
Which plan is the strictest?
One Nation's is the most extreme on paper, pushing net overseas migration into negative territory for three years. The Coalition's is the most detailed and immediately consequential for students and graduates specifically, given it would largely abolish the temporary graduate visa.
Does this affect people already living or studying in Australia on a visa?
These are forward-looking targets and proposals aimed at future intake, not retroactive changes to visas already granted. Always confirm your specific situation with a registered migration agent, since implementation details can change individual cases.
When will we know which plan actually happens?
Labor's policy is already being implemented. The Coalition and One Nation proposals depend on the outcome of the next federal election, due in 2028, and both parties say further detail and costings are still to come.
This article is for information only and is not immigration or legal advice. Policy proposals from opposition and minor parties are not current law. Confirm your specific situation with a registered migration agent or the Department of Home Affairs before making travel or study plans.
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