The H-1B Program Lost 132,000 Registrations in One Year. Here's Where They Went

7 lip
10 minut(y) czytania

The H-1B Program Lost 132,000 Registrations in One Year. Here's Where They Went

H-1B registrations dropped 38.5% from FY2026 to FY2027 — from 344,000 to 212,000. Microsoft's Project Move, Big Tech expanding in India, Vancouver becoming America's tech overflow city. Here's what the data actually means and what to do about it.

There is a number buried in a USCIS press release from March 2026 that tells you more about the current state of American tech immigration than any policy speech or executive order. It is 132,381.

That is how many fewer H-1B registrations USCIS received for fiscal year 2027 compared to fiscal year 2026. From 343,981 to 211,600 — a 38.5% decline in a single year. In a program that had been growing for a decade, that is not a correction. It is a collapse.

The administration celebrated it. USCIS called it "great results" from America First policies, evidence that the system was moving away from what it described as mass exploitation toward genuine talent. The agency is not entirely wrong — a significant portion of that 132,000 represents exactly the kind of speculative, low-quality, multiple-registration gaming the beneficiary-centric system was designed to eliminate.

But a significant portion does not. And the part that doesn't is now in Vancouver.

How We Got Here: Three Years of Declining H-1B Registrations

The FY2027 drop did not come from nowhere. It is the culmination of three years of policy changes that have systematically reshaped who uses the H-1B program, how they use it, and — increasingly — whether they bother at all.

Fiscal Year	Total registrations	YoY change	Key policy change
FY2024	~780,000	Peak	Multiple registration abuse at its height
FY2025	~344,000	-56%	Beneficiary-centric system eliminates duplicate filings
FY2026	343,981	Flat	First full year under new system; $100K fee looming
FY2027	211,600	-38.5%	Wage-weighted lottery + $100K fee effect + policy uncertainty

The FY2025 drop was almost entirely explained by the beneficiary-centric reform — eliminating the practice of multiple employers registering the same person, which had inflated the FY2024 numbers to near-800,000. That was a genuine cleanup of fraud and abuse.

The FY2027 drop is different. The beneficiary-centric system was already in place. The fraud cleanup had already happened. The pool that remained after FY2025 was, by definition, the legitimate demand — real employers, real workers, real jobs. And 38.5% of that legitimate demand disappeared in a single year.

The Wage-Weighted Lottery: Who Won, Who Lost

On February 27, 2026, DHS replaced the longstanding random H-1B lottery with a wage-level-based weighted selection system. The mechanics are simple:

DOL Wage Level	Entries in selection pool	What it means
Level I (entry-level)	1 entry	Lowest odds — entry-level salaries for the occupation
Level II (below median)	2 entries	Below-median salaries
Level III (median)	3 entries	Median salaries
Level IV (above median)	4 entries	Highest-paid positions — 4x better odds than Level I

The stated logic: reward employers who pay more, discourage the use of the H-1B to hire foreign workers at below-market wages. The practical effect: employers filing for entry-level positions now face dramatically worse odds, and the financial calculus of H-1B sponsorship has fundamentally changed.

For a Level I position with a $85,000 salary in a tech role, an employer now pays:

USCIS filing fees: ~$5,000–$7,000
Attorney costs: ~$3,000–$5,000
$100,000 consular supplemental fee (for workers hired from outside the US): $100,000
Total cost per sponsorship: up to $112,000+
Selection odds: the worst available

The $100,000 consular fee — which took effect September 21, 2025, was struck down by a federal judge on June 8, 2026, had a stay issued, and as of this writing remains in legal limbo — has been the single largest deterrent for employers hiring internationally. Even in its current uncertain state, its existence fundamentally changed the calculus of hiring from abroad.

"Even though the fee has now been struck down, the damage is not just legal, it is psychological and strategic," said Danielle Goldman, co-founder and CEO of immigration advisory Build Talent Labs. "The policy created confusion, and confusion is enough to stop hiring."

What Actually Happened to the 132,000

The administration's frame — that the missing registrations represent eliminated fraud and abuse — is partially true. Some portion of FY2027's decline reflects the wage-weighted system discouraging speculative filings at Level I.

But three other things happened simultaneously, and they explain registrations that were real demand and are now gone.

1. Big Tech Stopped Filing in Volume

Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft all reduced H-1B filings in FY2027 — not because they no longer want tech talent, but because the combination of layoffs, wage-weighted selection, and fee uncertainty changed their filing strategy. The employers that drove the FY2024 peak are filing differently.

Crucially, reducing H-1B filings does not mean those companies are hiring fewer engineers. It means they are hiring them differently — and often, elsewhere.

2. Microsoft's Project Move — Discussed on Blind for 18 Straight Months

On Blind — the anonymous professional network widely used by tech workers — discussions about Microsoft's Project Move have been consistently visible for over a year and a half. The program temporarily transfers US-based H-1B workers to Vancouver, Canada, then returns them to the United States on L-1 visas — which are not subject to the annual cap.

"People don't give up their current visa for a complicated multi-year workaround casually," said one immigration researcher who tracks Blind discussions. "And the fact that they're doing it steadily for a year and a half says they've stopped waiting for U.S. policy to improve and started building around it."

L-1 visas require a one-year stint at a foreign affiliate of the US employer — which is exactly what Vancouver provides. The route works. It takes longer. It requires uprooting your life. And tens of thousands of H-1B workers are doing it anyway.

3. India's Tech Industry Hit a Three-Year Record for Big Tech Hiring

American Big Tech firms added 32,000 jobs in India in FY2026 — a three-year record high. These are not outsourced support roles. They are the same engineering, AI, and software development positions that would previously have come to the United States on H-1B visas.

The message from research dating to 2020 — that legal restrictions on high-skilled immigration lead companies to offshore skilled jobs rather than hire domestically — is playing out exactly as predicted.

Vancouver: The Unofficial H-1B Relief Valve

Vancouver's tech sector has absorbed more displaced US-bound immigration than any comparable city in the world. It has done so not through aggressive recruitment or special economic policies, but simply by being Canada — which means stable immigration policy, a functional work permit system, and geographic proximity to Seattle.

The city's tech sector now has a specific characteristic that is unique globally: a large and growing concentration of workers who are there specifically because they cannot efficiently get to the United States. Former H-1B applicants who didn't win the lottery. Workers waiting out the L-1 visa process. Software engineers who decided the uncertainty was no longer worth it.

"Canada, the European Union, the U.K., and the UAE, among other places, are competing aggressively for talent that U.S. companies and universities have historically attracted," Goldman said. "They are building immigration products around certainty, speed, and welcome. If the U.S. restores predictability, it can remain the top destination. If not, we should expect talent to move — because talent always has options."

The UAE's Golden Visa program, specifically, has become a significant alternative for tech executives and senior engineers who have the profile to qualify — essentially a permanent residency option with no employment sponsorship requirement, no annual cap, and no lottery.

The Counterintuitive Good News: Your Odds Just Got Better

For workers who are still in the H-1B pool and targeting higher wage levels, the collapse in registrations has created a dramatically better selection environment.

Wage Level	FY2024 selection rate (estimated)	FY2027 selection rate
Level I	~8-10%	~15-25% (DHS estimate: 15.3%; law firm data: 24.5%)
Level II	~12-15%	~30-50%
Level III	~18-20%	~50-69%
Level IV	~22-25%	~55-65%

At Level III and Level IV, FY2027 selection rates were approaching 70% at some law firms' client pools. For workers with strong job offers at competitive salaries, the H-1B lottery is no longer the impossible gauntlet it was during the FY2024 peak.

The critical variable: the $100,000 consular fee. If it expires on September 21, 2026 without renewal, employer incentives to file could rebound and registration volumes could rise significantly for FY2028 — pushing selection rates back down. If it is renewed or upheld by the courts, volumes may stay suppressed and odds remain relatively favorable for those who do file.

The 71.5% Who Hold US Master's Degrees

USCIS reported another data point from FY2027 that deserves attention: 71.5% of selected H-1B beneficiaries hold a US master's degree or higher — up sharply from 57% in FY2026.

This reflects the combined effect of the wage-weighted lottery (which favors higher-paid positions that tend to require advanced degrees) and the master's cap exemption (which gives US master's degree holders a second chance in the selection process before the general pool is drawn).

The implication: if you hold a bachelor's degree from an international university and are targeting a mid-level tech role, the FY2027 data suggests your odds are materially worse than for someone with a US graduate degree. The program has structurally tilted toward US-trained advanced degree holders in a way that no previous H-1B cycle has.

What This Means By Profile

If you are currently on H-1B and your status is secure

The registration drop affects future applicants more than current holders. Your existing H-1B extensions, AC21 portability rights, and priority date protections are not affected by the lottery dynamics. Focus on your renewal timeline and I-140 status if you are pursuing a green card.

If you are on OPT/STEM OPT and preparing for FY2028

The FY2027 data is your most relevant baseline. At Level III or Level IV, your selection odds are genuinely reasonable — perhaps the best they have been in a decade. Focus on securing a job offer at a competitive salary level rather than accepting a lower salary in exchange for sponsorship, because the wage-weighted system now punishes that trade-off.

If you were not selected in FY2027

Your alternatives — in roughly decreasing order of accessibility:

STEM OPT extension (if eligible): 24 more months of work authorization, time to position for FY2028
Cap-exempt employer: universities, research institutions, nonprofit research organizations — H-1B with no annual cap
O-1A visa: extraordinary ability, no lottery, no cap — more achievable than commonly believed for senior technical professionals
L-1 via Canada: the Microsoft model — work for a foreign affiliate, return to US on intracompany transfer
EB-1A self-petition: extraordinary ability green card, bypasses employment-based queue entirely for eligible applicants

If you are an employer planning FY2028 hiring

The $100,000 consular fee's September 21 expiry date is your most important variable. If it expires, expect registration volumes to rebound and selection rates to fall. Budget and timeline accordingly. If your role is Level I, seriously evaluate whether the H-1B is the right vehicle or whether an O-1, EB-1, or cap-exempt position better fits the profile.

FAQ

Does the 38.5% drop mean H-1B is dying? No. 211,600 registrations for 85,000 visa slots still means 2.5 people competing for every available visa. The program is smaller, more expensive, and more selective — not dead. The cap was still reached in the first registration window.

Why did Big Tech reduce H-1B filings? A combination of layoffs in the sector, the wage-weighted system discouraging volume filing for lower-wage positions, and strategic shifts toward hiring internationally or through alternative visa routes. Reducing H-1B filings does not mean reducing hiring of foreign workers — it means routing those workers differently.

Is Project Move (Vancouver) available to everyone? No. It requires your employer to have a Canadian entity and be willing to facilitate the transfer. Currently most associated with Microsoft, though other large tech employers have similar programs. It requires a genuine one-year period working in Canada before the L-1 transfer to the US.

When does the $100,000 fee expire? The fee was enacted with a sunset provision of September 21, 2026. It was struck down by a federal judge on June 8, 2026, had a stay issued pending appeal, and is currently in legal limbo. It may expire naturally, be struck down permanently, or be renewed by executive action. Monitor developments closely.

If I get selected in FY2027, when does employment start? October 1, 2026 — the start of fiscal year 2027. Selection in the lottery allows your employer to file the full petition during the 90-day filing window that opened April 1, 2026.

Editorial Opinion — The Immigrants

The number 132,381 deserves a specific kind of attention — not as a policy success or a policy failure, but as a factual description of something that happened to the world's largest tech economy.

132,381 fewer workers were registered for US work visas in a single year. Some of those registrations were fraudulent. Some were duplicative. Some reflected genuine employers deciding the cost-benefit calculation no longer worked. And some are now in Vancouver, in Bangalore, in Dubai — working for the same companies, doing the same work, sending the same code commits to the same repositories, but doing it from a different timezone because the US made the process too uncertain, too expensive, and too confusing to navigate.

The administration's position — that this is exactly the desired outcome, that the US is now attracting only the best-paid, most qualified workers — has a certain internal consistency. And the FY2027 selection data supports part of the claim: 71.5% holding US master's degrees is a higher-credential pool than any previous cycle.

But here is the question that the data doesn't answer: where did the qualified workers with international degrees and competitive salaries go? Not every engineer who decides against the H-1B is someone the US should be happy to lose. Many are exactly the workers American tech companies want — and those companies have spent the past 18 months building organizational infrastructure to hire them elsewhere.

"Global talent does not wait for the U.S. to get its policy house in order," Goldman said.

The H-1B registration data for FY2027 is, in one reading, evidence that the policy is working. In another reading, it is a record of what America chose not to have.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational and journalistic purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. H-1B lottery odds, fee amounts, and program rules are subject to change. The $100,000 consular fee status is subject to ongoing litigation. Individual eligibility for alternative visa categories requires case-specific legal analysis. Consult a licensed immigration attorney before making decisions based on this article. The Immigrants is not affiliated with any law firm, government agency, or immigration service provider.